Changements au Moyen-Orient : quel danger pour le pétrole… et tout le reste ?
See the English version further down the page: Change in the Middle East: what danger for oil ... and everything else?
La situation actuelle au Moyen Orient est en général analysée à la fois par les medias comme la conséquence sociale et politique d’une situation de crise sociale et politique.
C’est incontestable
Cependant les gouvernements, dont ceux d’Israël et des pays arables jusqu’ici modérés, mais aussi les gouvernements occidentaux et asiatiques raisonnent tout autant en géostratégie et stratégie tout court
Les marchés raisonnent en niveaux de prix des matières premières, les commodities.
Ceci dit, comme le disait feu Lénine en son temps, les faits sont têtus. Voici le classement 2011 des réserves mondiales de pétrole. On y voit :
# 1 | 262,700,000,000 barrels | ||
# 2 | 178,900,000,000 barrels | ||
# 3 | Iran: | 133,300,000,000 barrels | |
# 4 | Iraq: | 112,500,000,000 barrels | |
# 5 | 97,800,000,000 barrels | ||
# 6 | 96,500,000,000 barrels | ||
# 7 | 75,590,000,000 barrels | ||
# 8 | 69,000,000,000 barrels | ||
# 9 | 40,000,000,000 barrels | ||
# 10 | 36,000,000,000 barrels |
On comprend que le 1er pays, le 3ème, le 5ème, le 6ème, et le 9ème, pays détenteurs des plus grands réserves de pétrole au monde sont simultanément sous une intense double pression de la rue et de leurs voisins dont les populations se sont révoltées
Le 4ème, est en guerre.
Le 10ème, ne va pas mieux que les autres, même si c’est pour des raisons différentes
Pour couronner le tout, le Canal de Suez du Français Ferdinand de Lesseps, jadis nationalisé par Nasser est non seulement la nouvelle frontière longtemps contestée entre l’Egypte et Israël, il est aussi le point de passage de plus de 5% du trafic pétrolier mondial, beaucoup plus si on y ajoute les pipelines voisins.
Comme le disait le poète, tous ne mourraient pas mais tout étaient atteints. Si on transpose l’image rassurante : même les pays extérieurs au Moyen-Orient et leurs populations sont concernés à de nombreux titres par ce qui s’y passe et notamment au Canal de Suez
Si les 7 pays détenteurs de l’or noir sont en révolution, pré-révolution ou guerre, il y a des quoi avoir un peu peur
Les medias en parlent modérément, les marchés sont raisonnable, Washington, Pékin, Tokyo Moscou et les principales capitales européens restent réservés dans leur communication extérieure
Certes, mais on ne pout s’empêcher de poser la question naïve :
What’s next ?
Olivier Chazoule
Change in the Middle East: what danger for oil ... and everything else?
The current situation in the Middle East in general is analyzed both by the media as the consequence of a social and political crisis and social policy.
It is indisputable
But governments, including Israel and the moderate countries arable far, but also Western and Asian governments argue just as in geo-strategy and strategy for short
The markets think in price levels of raw materials, commodities.
That said, as the late Lenin's time, the facts are stubborn. Following are the 2011 world oil reserves. It shows:
# 1 Saudi Arabia:
262,700,000,000 barrels
# 2 Canada:
178,900,000,000 barrels
Iran # 3:
133,300,000,000 barrels Iraq # 4:
112,500,000,000 barrels
# 5 United Arab Emirates:
97,800,000,000 barrels
Kuwait # 6:
96,500,000,000 barrels
Venezuela # 7:
75,590,000,000 barrels
# 8 Russia:
69,000,000,000 barrels
Libya # 9:
40,000,000,000 barrels
# 10 Nigeria:
36,000,000,000 barrels
We understand that the country first, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 9th, countries possessing the largest oil reserves in the world are simultaneously under intense pressure from the street twice and neighbors whose people revolted
The fourth is at war.
The 10th, do not get better than the others, albeit for different reasons
To top it all, the Suez Canal from French Ferdinand de Lesseps, formerly nationalized by Nasser is not only the new long-contested border between Egypt and Israel, it is also the crossing point of more than 5% of global oil traffic much more if we add the neighboring pipeline.
As the poet said, all would not die but were met. If we transpose the reassuring image: even countries outside the Middle East and their populations are affected in many ways by what happens there, including the Suez Canal
. If holders of the 7 countries are in the black gold revolution, pre-revolution or war, there is nothing to be a little scared
In the media moderately, markets are reasonable, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, Moscow and European capitals are reserved in their external communication
Certainly, but not pout help but ask the naive question:
What's next?
Olivier Chazoule
The current situation in the Middle East in general is analyzed both by the media as the consequence of a social and political crisis and social policy.
It is indisputable
But governments, including Israel and the moderate countries arable far, but also Western and Asian governments argue just as in geo-strategy and strategy for short
The markets think in price levels of raw materials, commodities.
That said, as the late Lenin's time, the facts are stubborn. Following are the 2011 world oil reserves. It shows:
# 1 Saudi Arabia:
262,700,000,000 barrels
# 2 Canada:
178,900,000,000 barrels
Iran # 3:
133,300,000,000 barrels Iraq # 4:
112,500,000,000 barrels
# 5 United Arab Emirates:
97,800,000,000 barrels
Kuwait # 6:
96,500,000,000 barrels
Venezuela # 7:
75,590,000,000 barrels
# 8 Russia:
69,000,000,000 barrels
Libya # 9:
40,000,000,000 barrels
# 10 Nigeria:
36,000,000,000 barrels
We understand that the country first, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 9th, countries possessing the largest oil reserves in the world are simultaneously under intense pressure from the street twice and neighbors whose people revolted
The fourth is at war.
The 10th, do not get better than the others, albeit for different reasons
To top it all, the Suez Canal from French Ferdinand de Lesseps, formerly nationalized by Nasser is not only the new long-contested border between Egypt and Israel, it is also the crossing point of more than 5% of global oil traffic much more if we add the neighboring pipeline.
As the poet said, all would not die but were met. If we transpose the reassuring image: even countries outside the Middle East and their populations are affected in many ways by what happens there, including the Suez Canal
. If holders of the 7 countries are in the black gold revolution, pre-revolution or war, there is nothing to be a little scared
In the media moderately, markets are reasonable, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, Moscow and European capitals are reserved in their external communication
Certainly, but not pout help but ask the naive question:
What's next?
Olivier Chazoule
