See the English version further down the page: China is not the first country in the world, but the others either
La Chine n’est pas le premier pays du monde, mais les autres non plus
Larry Summers, Directeur du Conseil Economique National de la Maison Blanche vient de déclarer à un colloque organisé par le Wall Street Journal que les décennies à venir seront dominées par la rivalité entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis. Il a ajouté que le sort du 21eme siècle sera aussi déterminé par la manière dont le reste du monde s’ajustera au développement exponentiel de la Chine.
Depuis 1989 et la chute du mur de Berlin le monde bipolaire USA-URSS était devenu brièvement multipolaire. Très vite cependant, il est apparu que les Etats-Unis ont assumé la domination de la planète, devenant selon le mot d’Hubert Védrine alors ministre français des affaires étrangères une Hyper-Puissance.
Ronald Reagan en demandant à Michael Gorbatchev de faire tomer le Mur de Berlin, puis Georges Bush senior en réclamant un nouvel ordre économique et politique mondial et enfin Bill Clinton en donnant à l’Amérique 8 ans de croissance, de chômage inexistant, d’excédent budgétaire et d’absence de guerre, ont confirmé ce concept d’Hyper-Puissance de l’Amérique.
Les événements tragiques du 11 septembre 2001 ont bouleversé le monde. Ils ont aussi provoqué une interrogation sur la puissance réelle de l’Amérique et sa vulnérabilité supposée, alors qu’en fait chaque pays au monde est aussi vulnérable aux attaques terroristes que les Etats-Unis, sinon plus.
Le déséquilibre mondial est venu d’ailleurs et pour d’autres raisons. On a entendu à satiété le mot de Napoléon Bonaparte : Quand la Chine s’éveillera, le monde tremblera.
La Nouvelle est tombée il y a quelques années : La Chine s’est réveillée.
Sous trois formes :
La Chine est discrète. Elle n’annonce ni ne dévoile ses intentions, encore moins ses réalisations. Ce n’est qu’au moment de la mise en œuvre des services, produits et technologies que ses concurrents apprennent les nouvelles qui sont toujours distillées de manière neutre et humble. Ce que les Anglo-Saxons appellent des Understatments
La Chine va vite. Elle pense vite, décide vite, conçoit vite, construit vite, lance vite, achète vite (matières premières en Afrique par exemple) et vend vite
Enfin, la Chine est sur tous les fronts.
Les illustrations sont nombreuses (certaines avaient été données dans ces colonnes le 23 aout dernier dans La Chine un colosse aux pieds en béton, du même auteur).
La liste s’est très vite allongée, dans les secteurs stratégiques de l’économie, de la finance et de la haute technologie.
La première tendance est illustrée par les déclarations feutrées des dirigeants chinois indiquant vouloir globaliser (étendre internationalement) les banques chinoises pour rivaliser avec les géantes américaines et européennes.
L’effet sera triple : Bénéfice pour la Chine elle-même, contrôle bancaire de la région asiatique et compétition directe avec les rivaux occidentaux.
Selon M. Min Zhu, conseiller spécial auprès du FMI, la Chine qui compte pour 8% de la production industrielle mondiale à haute valeur ajoutée, atteindra les 33% en dix ans et
les pays émergents menés par la Chine représenteront 60% de la croissance mondiale dans 6 ans.
Mais le plus surprenant et le plus marquant des récents mouvements de la Chine a été dans le domaine des super computers. Il y a quelques semaines La Chine vient de révéler l’existence de son nouveau super computer 40% plus rapide que les plus rapides des computers américains qui tenaient jusqu’ici le haut du pavé : il s’agit du Tianhe-1A une machine révélée à Tianjin en Chine le mois dernier. Cet ordinateur exécute plus d'un milliard de milliards de calculs à la seconde et distance largement ses concurrents étrangers.Ce sont les experts américains qui ont constaté sur place la validité de cette supériorité et ont déclaré qu'il faudrait plusieurs années, voire plusieurs décennies pour que les Américains puissent rattraper leur retard.
Supers computers signifient haute technologie, voyage dans l’espace civil et militaire, aéronautique, machinerie et de nombreuses applications, y compris militaires terrestres et sous-marines.
Immédiatement les Japonais on réagi en lançant dans l’urgence (Fujitsu) un programme informatique pour rattraper les Chinois, les Américains ont fait de même.
Pour ajouter à cette ambiance de compétition tendue, la Chine vient de limiter les investissements immobiliers des étrangers en Chine.
Autant spéculer entre soi.
C’est une mesure régulièrement adoptée par tous les pays du monde pour des périodes limitées.
Là encore, en faisant de même, la Chine tient à montrer au monde sa souveraineté.
Ainsi la liste est longue des percées technologiques, économies et politiques de la Chine. Elle ne les dévoile qu’au compte-goutte.
Pour ne pas humilier ses rivaux peut-être.
Ou peut-être pour qu’ils s’aperçoivent trop tard de leur retard.
Certes, la Chine ne domine pas le Monde, mais désormais le Monde ne domine pas la Chine.
Olivier Chazoule
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China is not the first country in the world, but the others either
Larry Summers, Director of the National Economic Council at the White House has just told a symposium organized by the Wall Street Journal that the coming decades will be dominated by the rivalry between China and the United States. He added that the fate of the 21st century will also be determined by how the world will adjust to the exponential growth of China.
.Since 1989 and the fall of the Berlin Wall on US-Soviet bipolar world has become multipolar briefly. Very quickly, however, it appeared that the U.S. has assumed the dominance of the planet, becoming in the words of Hubert Védrine then French Minister of Foreign Affairs a Hyper-Power.
Ronald Reagan asking Gorbachev to tomer the Berlin Wall, George Bush Sr. and then claiming a new world political and economic order and then Bill Clinton giving to America 8 years of growth, no unemployment, surplus budget and the absence of war, have confirmed this concept of Hyper-Power America.
The tragic events of September 11, 2001 shocked the world. They also provoked a questioning of the real power of America and its supposed vulnerability, when in fact every country in the world is as vulnerable to terrorist attacks that the United States, if not more.
The global imbalance came from elsewhere and for other reasons. We have heard ad nauseam the words of Napoleon Bonaparte: When China awakes, the world will tremble.
The news came a few years ago: China has awakened.
Three forms:
China is discrete. It advertises or otherwise disclose its intentions, let alone his accomplishments. It was not until the implementation of services, products and technologies that its competitors learn the news is always distilled in a neutral and respectful. What the Anglo-Saxons call Understatments
China will soon. She thinks fast, decide fast, faster designs, builds quickly, launches faster, faster purchases (raw materials in Africa for example) and sells quickly
Finally, China is on all fronts.
The illustrations are many (some had been given in these columns on August 23 last in China a colossus with feet of concrete, the same author).
The list was soon lying in strategic sectors of the economy, finance and high technology.
The first trend is exemplified by statements indicating felted Chinese leaders want to globalize (expand internationally) Chinese banks to compete with the giant U.S. and Europe.
The effect is threefold: Profit for China itself, Banking Supervision of the Asian region and direct competition with Western rivals.
According to Mr. Zhu Min, Special Advisor to the IMF, China, which account for 8% of world industrial production of high added value, will reach 33% in ten years and
emerging countries led by China account for 60% of global growth in 6 years.
But the most surprising and most significant of recent movements in China has been in the field of super computers. A few weeks ago, China has revealed the existence of its new super computer 40% faster than the fastest American computers that held the upper hand so far: it is the Tianhe-1A revealed to a machine Tianjin, China last month. This computer is running more than a billion billion calculations per second, and far away its foreign competitors.
These are U.S. experts who saw first hand the validity of this superiority and said it would take several years or even decades for Americans to catch up.
Super computers mean high technology, space travel, civil and military aviation, machinery and many applications, including military land and underwater.
Immediately the Japanese responded with one in a hurry (Fujitsu) a computer program to catch the Chinese, the Americans have done the same.
To add to this atmosphere of tense competition, China has restricted foreign investment in real estate in China.
Much speculation among themselves.
It is a measure duly adopted by all countries in the world for limited periods.
Again, by doing the same, China is keen to show the world its sovereignty.
Thus the long list of technological advances, economies and policies of China. She did reveal that dropper.
To not humiliate his rival, perhaps.
Or maybe they realize too late for their delay.
Admittedly, China does not dominate the world, but now the world does not dominate China.
Olivier Chazoule
Larry Summers, Director of the National Economic Council at the White House has just told a symposium organized by the Wall Street Journal that the coming decades will be dominated by the rivalry between China and the United States. He added that the fate of the 21st century will also be determined by how the world will adjust to the exponential growth of China.
.Since 1989 and the fall of the Berlin Wall on US-Soviet bipolar world has become multipolar briefly. Very quickly, however, it appeared that the U.S. has assumed the dominance of the planet, becoming in the words of Hubert Védrine then French Minister of Foreign Affairs a Hyper-Power.
Ronald Reagan asking Gorbachev to tomer the Berlin Wall, George Bush Sr. and then claiming a new world political and economic order and then Bill Clinton giving to America 8 years of growth, no unemployment, surplus budget and the absence of war, have confirmed this concept of Hyper-Power America.
The tragic events of September 11, 2001 shocked the world. They also provoked a questioning of the real power of America and its supposed vulnerability, when in fact every country in the world is as vulnerable to terrorist attacks that the United States, if not more.
The global imbalance came from elsewhere and for other reasons. We have heard ad nauseam the words of Napoleon Bonaparte: When China awakes, the world will tremble.
The news came a few years ago: China has awakened.
Three forms:
China is discrete. It advertises or otherwise disclose its intentions, let alone his accomplishments. It was not until the implementation of services, products and technologies that its competitors learn the news is always distilled in a neutral and respectful. What the Anglo-Saxons call Understatments
China will soon. She thinks fast, decide fast, faster designs, builds quickly, launches faster, faster purchases (raw materials in Africa for example) and sells quickly
Finally, China is on all fronts.
The illustrations are many (some had been given in these columns on August 23 last in China a colossus with feet of concrete, the same author).
The list was soon lying in strategic sectors of the economy, finance and high technology.
The first trend is exemplified by statements indicating felted Chinese leaders want to globalize (expand internationally) Chinese banks to compete with the giant U.S. and Europe.
The effect is threefold: Profit for China itself, Banking Supervision of the Asian region and direct competition with Western rivals.
According to Mr. Zhu Min, Special Advisor to the IMF, China, which account for 8% of world industrial production of high added value, will reach 33% in ten years and
emerging countries led by China account for 60% of global growth in 6 years.
But the most surprising and most significant of recent movements in China has been in the field of super computers. A few weeks ago, China has revealed the existence of its new super computer 40% faster than the fastest American computers that held the upper hand so far: it is the Tianhe-1A revealed to a machine Tianjin, China last month. This computer is running more than a billion billion calculations per second, and far away its foreign competitors.
These are U.S. experts who saw first hand the validity of this superiority and said it would take several years or even decades for Americans to catch up.
Super computers mean high technology, space travel, civil and military aviation, machinery and many applications, including military land and underwater.
Immediately the Japanese responded with one in a hurry (Fujitsu) a computer program to catch the Chinese, the Americans have done the same.
To add to this atmosphere of tense competition, China has restricted foreign investment in real estate in China.
Much speculation among themselves.
It is a measure duly adopted by all countries in the world for limited periods.
Again, by doing the same, China is keen to show the world its sovereignty.
Thus the long list of technological advances, economies and policies of China. She did reveal that dropper.
To not humiliate his rival, perhaps.
Or maybe they realize too late for their delay.
Admittedly, China does not dominate the world, but now the world does not dominate China.
Olivier Chazoule
